Energy Mechanics · Electricity · Coal generation

The retirement curve
from peak to today

COAL · TWh/YR · GW
RELEASE · EIA EPM TABLES 1.1.A & 7.2.A
VINTAGE · —
NEXT EPM · —
BITUMINOUS + SUBBITUMINOUS + LIGNITE
STATUS · LOADING
U.S. coal generation is — TWh/year — down from a peak of — TWh in , roughly —% lower today. Subbituminous coal from the Powder River Basin (Wyoming + Montana) is now the fuel mix's largest single source — low-sulfur, low-BTU, cheap to mine, railed east to plants across the Midwest and South. Bituminous coal from Appalachia (WV, KY, PA) has the higher BTU content but is the rank in fastest structural decline as legacy eastern plants retire.
Bituminous (Appalachian) Subbituminous (PRB) Lignite (TX, ND) bar length ∝ TWh/year · BTU content: bit ≈ 12,500 / sub ≈ 8,800 / lig ≈ 6,500
COAL RANK · TWh/YEAR BASIN · QUALITY · TRENDS Subbituminous (Powder River Basin) WYOMING + MONTANA · LOW-SULFUR · UNIT-TRAIN RAIL EAST Share of coal mix ~8,800 BTU/lb · half the sulfur of bituminous · 1970s Clean Air Act winner PRB single mines (North Antelope Rochelle, Black Thunder) move >80 Mt/yr each — among the largest mines on Earth. Bituminous (Appalachian + Illinois Basin) WV · KY · PA · IL · IN · HIGH-BTU · DECLINING Share of coal mix ~12,500 BTU/lb · higher sulfur · supplies older eastern fleet Appalachian production is in long-term structural decline — gas turbines + renewables undercut on dispatch cost. TOP GENERATING STATES · TWh/YEAR Texas ~Half lignite (East TX mines), half PRB sub · still #1 by generation West Virginia Coal-state archetype · mine-mouth plants on Appalachian bit Kentucky TVA + LG&E fleet · Illinois Basin bit reserves nearby Indiana Duke + AEP + NIPSCO fleet · Illinois Basin + PRB mix Missouri Ameren + Evergy · PRB-fed plants on Missouri River TOP 5 STATES = OF U.S. COAL · ~ COAL PLANTS RETIRED SINCE 2010
Total coal generation
vs 5 yrs ago
vs 2010 peak
peak · TWh
Coal plants operating
down from ~547 in 2010
Share of U.S. generation
~45% in 2010 · ~16% today
SOURCE · U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly (Table 1.1.A net generation by source and Table 7.2.A coal consumption for electric power by rank). Per-state numbers are EIA EPM Table 1.6.B. The 2010 peak is the all-time high for U.S. coal generation (~2,010 TWh); 2007 was the all-time peak for coal's share of U.S. electricity (~49%). Powder River Basin coal (Wyoming) became dominant after the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments tightened SO₂ limits, because PRB sub has roughly half the sulfur content of Appalachian bit per BTU. Plant retirements began accelerating around 2012 when the MATS rule, then cheap shale gas, then Renewable Portfolio Standards stacked on the marginal cost curve. The figure for "coal plants operating" counts operational utility-scale power plants with at least one coal-fired unit; Form EIA-860 is the source. About 250 GW of coal capacity has retired since 2010, replaced mostly by gas combined-cycle plus wind & solar.
SECOND·ORDER·EDGE